Dave's random mumblings…

The US national team has had a busy couple of months, 13 games spread across World Cup Qualifying, Gold Cup and Confederations Cup. They ended up winning 7 (1 in extra time), loosing 5 and drawing one. Not bad, but hardly world class when you look at the opposition.

On the plus side there was the obvious highlight of beating Spain, making it to the Confederation Cup final and being 2-0 up against Brazil at half time. However the same tournament had big losses against Brazil and Italy in the group stage in what is ultimately a fairly meaningless tournament.

Where it counts is World Cup qualifying it’s not been so bright. There have been two games this summer, an unconvincing draw against Honduras and a big loss in Costa Rica. The next qualifying game is in Mexico, if the US loose in the Azteca, the away game against Honduras in October may have a huge say in who goes to South Africa.

Ultimately the US are good enough that they should qualify for South Africa next summer, but it’s not an easy path at this point.

The 5-0 loss to Mexico in the Gold Cup final really showed up some ongoing problems with the current set up. Finishing in the red-zone is woeful, the defence seems to lack discipline with players consistently being caught out of position and not able to pick up the runs in the box. Yes this was not the US “A” team, but nor was Mexico.

I feel that the coaches have a far bigger influence over the B team players than the first team. A lot of these players play in the MLS and don’t necessarily have access to top level coaching and opposition week-in-week out the way the European based players that make up a bulk of the first team do.

It’s not a bash on the MLS, just reality that a player that goes against top level defenders every week in training and games is going to be better than a player that goes against defenders earning $40K in the MLS.

This lack of exposure to top level football places more of a burden on the US coaches to provide tactics that work for the players they have, and I don’t think the current coaches have done this very well.

Bob Bradley inherited a team from Bruce Arena that was well drilled with players that understand their role. It was a team that knew where they had to be during set plays, especially on defence but also in the red zone. When playing internationally, not giving away cheap goals to teams that have the ability to close a game down is absolutely paramount.

Looking back over the last couple of months the Spain win looks like something of a lucky win (granted, to a certain extent you make your own luck at that level) and constantly changing line ups don’t help, but during the two games that really meant something they did not play well.

This summer I don’t think the US team has played with the same level of discipline, knowledge and confort, and I think in large part that’s down to the coaching staff.

I find Risk management is one of the tougher parts of managing projects.

I get that ideally I should be working on preventing problems, the reality is that more often I am dealing with problems as they come up. I spoke to a couple of colleagues and they had the same problem.

I see two major reasons for this

• Lack of formal RM training. There are some excellent Risk Management tools available, but effective risk management requires more than just tracking the what the team has identified.
• Risks are identified during the initial phases, but the risk identification process is rarely revisited to search for new risks before the become issues.

Risk management needs to be proactive to be effective, it’s more than a list that’s tracked, it’s about getting ahead of the identified issue and preventing or mitigating the problems before they go wrong, and doing all you can to make things go right.

The process can start at any time during the initiation or planning phase of the project, but can not be completed until the full scope of the project is identified and the Work Breakdown Structure is complete. This ensures the team knows what the project is going to produce. While the planning phase of the program may have a specific risk identification session, risks can be identified by any member of the team at any time during the project.

The later in the project the risk is identified the more resources maybe required to deal with the issue. The identification should involve all stakeholders and consider including non-stakeholders with specialist knowledge as required. Everyone brings a slightly different mix of perspective and skills to what should be a iterative process. There are any number of tools (Delphi, brainstorming, SWOT analysis and so on) that can be used to aid identification of risks.

The identification is followed by a qualitative and quantitative analysis and then an initial cut at response planning.  After this exercise is run you have a Risk Register that consists of the following:-

• List of risks
• Potential responses to the risks
• Root cause of the risk
• Uncertainty in the risk
• Risk categories

At this point it’s important to understand the sponsors risk tolerance level. Some risks may be unacceptable to the sponsor and may require modification of the project scope or response plan. For example, a risk that may drive a cost increase of 10% or a schedule slip of 4 weeks may be acceptable, but any more than that is unacceptable.

Not only was an article about cow tipping published in the esteemed London Times, it included how much effort it would take to do the tipping…

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article586737.ece

As in all good exams they even show the working…

Like most project managers I’ve typically tried to manage roadblocks and issues behind the scenes with out raising too much of a fuss. This is usually effective in getting the results I require with out drawing too much attention or using too much political capitol.

However there are times it is best to get a problem out in the open, almost always in conjunction with the behind the scenes work, not instead of. Lining everything up first with your usual communication plan before airing the issues in a more public setting makes sure no one gets surprised.

In the past I’ve usually booked a special meeting of the Project team to address a specific problem or issue that’s causing the roadblock.

A lot of PM’s and some sponsors can see this as a failure of the PM process, however I believe more often than not, calling the “trouble” meeting can benefit the PM directly:

While you may not have foreseen the problem in the planning stages calling a special meeting helps build your credibility because you recognized a problem that the project needs help with and not everyone was aware of.

It also allows the PM to proactively manage the attention given to their project by leadership. This attention is a limited resource that you want to use only when needed. Gets the people you need further u the food chain to pay attention and is used to solve both systemic problems (process) and tactical problems (project).

Perhaps most importantly it shows that you are “Managing the Project”, often a PM’s skills are may not be visible to senior managers and this gives people outside your usual reporting structure that you working to keep things under control.

Meeting with the project team allows people vent, and encourages participation in the solution, which improves buy-in, and makes your change job easier.

If you find yourself confronting a significant problem or barrier in your project, call a special meeting, and get the problem out in the open.

Your project and how you are how leadership perceive you will benefit.

The PMBOK definition of a project is very straightforward, on page 5 it says

“A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product, service or result.”

The PMI then goes on to define the difference between operations and a project.

“The project concludes when its specific objectives have been attained, while operations adopt a new set of objects and the work continues.”

While I understand what the PMI is trying to say, I don’t necessarily agree and find the line to be far more blurred. My knowledge is mostly in aero, and a lot of what PMI defines as “operations” are in fact just continuous improvement lifecycle projects.

The development of a new product (software, airliner or widget) is often seen as a discrete project. However when you look at the program in many ways it’s closer to the operational model as defined by PMBOK, than the project model.

For example, while I’ve worked at Boeing we’ve produced over seven hundred individual 777 airliners. The last of those has the same basic airframe as the first, but has surprisingly little else in common.

This came out very clearly when customer wanted a new build aircraft delivered in 2009 to be a similar configuration to the aircraft we last delivered to the airline in 1999. The 777 product had evolved so far in the intervening decade that we were unable to deliver what the customer wasnted in a surprising number of areas.

The issues were not because of parts obsolescence, some minor changes driven by updated certification requirements, but the vast majority (over 90%) of the changes we were forced to make to the 1999 configuration were because of this ongoing evolution of the basic design.

Most of these changes were put in place over the years to support the ongoing efficiency improvements being made in the Boeing Production System. Clearly the 777 is not unique in blurring the project/operations line.

So where does the project/operations line get crossed?

My thoughts…

Using the PMBOK definition a project is non-value added. It does not produce something until the project is complete.

Conversely the operations lifecycle is over when an item stops adding value.

If we accept this then it would seem obvious that the project phase should be made as short as possible, using all available resources to expedite the project and get to creating value for the owner as early as feasible.

Using that as the criteria, when did the 777 move from the project to operations phase? When the engineering was complete? The first airplane rolled off he production line? When serial production was underway?

Using the PMBOK definition, all the above could be the right answer.

Tuesday night was fun, I was unable to be at the game at Starfire and was restricted to watching the computer feed. It had everything, drama, good, desperate football with everything on the line.

The Houston goal lived a very charmed life during the last 20 minutes as Seattle threw everything at them time and time again. This time the 89^th minute goal was needed just to send it into extra time, and the rest is history.

Next up is DCU in DC for the trophy, and a place in the lucrative CONCACAF Champions League next year.

Dare I dream of international club football in season two of the current incarnation of the Sounders?

To quote John Motson “This just keeps getting better and better”.

Today the war of words between the finalists escalated, it’s not just between the supporter groups (that’s been on going since the final whistle on Tuesday), but between Adrian Hanauer and Kevin Payne (DCU president).

Hanauer talked to the Olympian newspaper about DC getting the game over Seattle. How the sounders would sell out Quest Field and DC may not even get a 10,000 gate (last year they got 8,200 at RFK for the final).

(http://www.theolympian.com/sports/soundersfc/story/918575.html).

Payne replied in the Washington Post, he called Hanauers’ comments offensive and had a little bash at Seattle and playing on the plastic.

(http://voices.washingtonpost.com/soccerinsider/2009/07/payne_responds_to_sounders.html#more).

My favourite quote: “I just think it is a little out of bounds in your first year to throw stones the way they have.”

It’s 5 weeks until the game and the clubs are trash talking. Forget Portland for another couple of years, this is the big leagues and this is how rivalries are created.

Nice peace in a British blog about the Sounders.

http://europeanfootballweekends.blogspot.com/2009/07/seattle-sounders-fc.html

Football (the round ball version) seems to have a couple of major hurdles left to overcome to really become a mainstream sport in the US.

First, attract the top level athletes early and have them stick with the game.

From limited my experience the US youth development system seems to be aimed at preparing players for college. By the time a player has a couple of years of college it’s too late, very few clubs will invest the effort to develop 20 year old players.

There are a few good players that come out the college system, but generally they look unprepared for the professional leagues. I think the key is to create a real academy system tied to the club sides, identify the really talented players at 14 to 16 years old and give them the intense quality training that only a professional setup can.

The US has a few potentially world class players, Howard, Adu, Altidore and Johnson come to mind. I believe Altidore, who is only 19, may have the potential to be the best player yet to come through the US youth system.

Howard was spectacular against Spain the Confederation Cup semi, probably the best performance in a team that overall had a great game. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the four players I names all play in Europe, and maybe more importantly most moved there early in their professional career.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, promote the game and create more of a demand for the game from the public.
While there are some MLS success stories (Sounders rather spectacularly leading the way, Toronto FC, LA and one or two others), there are some other teams playing some good football but drawing less than 7 or 8,000.

A win in the Confederation cup could have helped in really establishing the beautiful game in the minds of US sports fans. A win over one of the strongest football nations (and probably the biggest “name” in the game) would have increased the momentum from the stunning win over Spain.

Don Garber (MLS commissioner) Said “We’ve always believed we deserved more respect than we receive, in sports you’ve got to earn respect, you can’t just ask for it, and the US (and by extension the MLS) earned some respect this past week.

Europe has always looked down a little on US football, despite being 14th in the current FIFA ranking and consistent qualification for the World Cup (something my England can’t always claim) drawing the US is always thought of as a relatively easy game by European fans. I think the win over Spain and taking the game to Brazil will cause more people to take the US national team, and by association the MLS a little more seriously in the future.

Garber followed up by adding “Today we proved that we can compete at the highest level, for 45 minutes, we had one of the best teams in the world shocked and on their heels.”

That’s true, but the question to Mr Garber needs to be what are you going to do with that success and growing respect to make a difference to the game in the US?

There is that fleeting moment, it’s the split second where you know it’s all gone terribly wrong, but the full extent of the trouble has not played itself out yet.

• When you feel the front tire of the bike go flat on the downhill…
• When you feel the back of the race car step out when you turn into the corner…
• When you see the football heading towards your head…
• When you catch the ball and the biggest forward on the other team is about to hit you…
• When the jump turns out to be bigger than you thought…

Time slows down, senses become much sharper and you notice the details that would have normally passed you by….

Then the impact occurs, you hit bike/ground/car/tree and just for a fleeting second you think that maybe you got away with it, that its not going to hurt as much as you thought…

Then reality smacks you upside the head and it hurts, oh my it hurts…

I was rallying with JB Niday in California a couple of years ago. The notes read “50 Jump 100 Big Jump 350”, translated that’s a jump followed by a short straight that led to another bigger jump, again followed by another straight.

Others slowed for the second jump, we did not, and hit the crest of the second jump at a little over 80MPH. That was the moment we both knew our day had taken a turn for the worst.

It seemed like we were in the air for an age, I had enough time to drop my notes, assume the crash position of putting my chin on my chest and holding onto my shoulder harness to stop my arms flapping around if we rolled.

I then had time to look up once again, see we were still in the air and I recall the ground being a lot closer than it was previously. We were in the air for 164 feet (we went back and measured it) and landed heavily, very heavily, nose first and yes it hurt a lot. It was not pretty, the car was very bent, but we got some cool pictures of the accident.

This is my favourite photo, the front had landed, the back was still in the air with dirt auguring off the front, and the best bit… The brake lights are on.

The car behind us had friends in it, they stopped to see what had happened, we explained how we took the big jump flat. George looked at us and blurted out “you are so f$#%ing stupid…”, Jeff his codriver yelled “You did that? That is so f$#&ing cool…”

That’s rally, and people like George and Jeff are why I love the sport.

In Italy Serie A is referred to as ‘il campionato piu bello del mondo’, this translates as “the most beautiful championship in the world”. I lived and worked for a while and went to a few Inter games, this was the league to watch in the mid 90′s. The atmosphere was electric and the product on the pitch was a beautiful, possession orientated game with the best players in the world.

The league does not seem healthy right now. There have been chairmen and owners convicted of influencing referees, the Italian game is full of rumours claiming bribery, influenced games and clubs using politicians to get their way.

The biggest scandal resulted in Juventus having two championships stripped and dropped to Serie B. Point deductions, fines and competition bans were levelled against Fiorentina, A.C. Milan, Lazio and Reggina.

During the 06 closed season big names players moved from the affected clubs. Patrick Viera and Zlatan Ibrahimovic went to Inter, the newly crowed champions and the club that gained most from the scandal. Many other players, including Zambrotta, Cannavaro, Stam and Rui Costa left Serie A for other European leagues.

The trend continues, the leagues biggest name, Kaka signed for Real Madrid, A.C.’s manager Carlo Ancelotti moved to Chelsea and rumours abound of players following him to the Premier League.

Unquestionably Serie A was the league in which all the top players in world football wanted to play. It started with Michel Platini at Juventus, Trevor Frances at Sampdoria and Maradona leading Napoli to two titles. Lothar Matthaeus was the man who led Inter to the championship. Most memorable of all were A.C Milans trio of Frank Rijkaard, Ruud Gullit and Marco van Basten that gave the storied club perhaps their most successful era ever.

After the World Cup in 1990 the success kept coming for Serie A with a new group of names making it the strongest (and wealthiest) league in the world. Ronaldo, Shevchenko, Batistuta, Crespo, Thuram and Zinedine Zidane could have played at any league in the world, and they all chose to play in Italy.

So what happened?

It seems to come down to finances. The TV contract and revenue generated by the Premier League and the privileged few in La Liga clearly allowed these clubs to compete with, and then overtake Italy financially.

To make matters worse Italian clubs generally don’t own their grounds and the last major expansion was for Italia 90. Currently the Spanish and English grounds are far ahead in both facilities and more importantly today, revenue generation. While Juve are getting a new stadium built with mostly public money, other clubs have found getting local authories to pay for upgrades in the current climate is all but impossible.

The big 5 or 6 European clubs have created incredible brands that move huge amounts of merchandise and add significantly to the bottom line, and none of those are Italian.

Additionally Italian captain Fabio Cannavaro has called for a rethinking of the Italian youth system, he proposes the clubs adopt something closer to the academies in England. The top youth players in Italy are finding homes abroad where the technical training is just as good and the facilities are far better.

The early exit from the Confederations Cup in South Africa may be exactly what the World champions needed to take a look at the fundamentals of the Italian game and look at what Serie A needs to do to allow them to compete with the big British and Spanish clubs.

A Champions League that has German and Italian sides consistently competing where it matters, along with the English and Spanish clubs can only be good for the game in Europe.