Dave's random mumblings…

It finally started getting noisy again. First test of the year is a rather nervous affair with a first day of school feeling about it. No one really sure what’s going to happen.

Testing started in Valencia and the teams are making the usual “early to say much”, “everything went very well” and “very happy with the new car” noises one would expect.

I had a look through the grid and for the first time since 1999 there are four world champions lining up on the grid, and they are all in what should be competitive cars.

Mercedes is hot off winning both drivers and manufacturers championships last year and I don’t see how adding Schumacher to the mix is going to make them worse. Rosberg has never really shown he can sit with the really fast cars on the track. I doubt Michael will give him the chance, and what ever Ross Brawn says the team will be built around Michael challenging for the championship.

McLaren have the last two world champions in their cars. Last year when the team started testing they were about two seconds off the pace of the fastest cars and it took 8 months of hard work to claw that time back. McLaren does not make that kind of a mess twice and seem to be right there in Valencia.

Ferrari has Alonso joining Massa. Like the two McLaren boys this should be a fun battle to watch unfold over the next few months. I think Alonso should be the quicker, but potentially not by much.

The new rule changes are interesting, with no refueling and longer cars it’s going to help the smoother, finesse drivers more. It’s going to become all about tires and preserving them as fuel loads are equalized during the race.

Hamilton and Button have two very different driving styles; Button has the reputation for being unspectacular and very smooth. Hamilton on the other had is a little more spectacular in throwing the car around more. With a longer wheelbase dictated by the big fuel tank the car is not going to be as responsive to that style.

Looking at last year (I love stats and Wikipedia) Hamilton seemed to be at his best when the fuel load was lighter. Best example maybe Turkey, starting with a light car he just flew through the field, untill the first fuel stop took a lot of his advantage over the rest of the field away.

Going back to the last time there was no refueling (80’s and early 90’s, my personal F1 golden period) it was certainly the smoothest drivers that worked out how be gentle to their tires (Prost was the master, Piquet and Schumacher) did very well. Button, Alonso and (of course) Schumacher seem to be todays drivers whose style may allow fewer stops. I may add Weber to this list, not sure.

On the other side was what were known as the “putters” (as opposed to smooth driving “placers”). Senna and Mansell were notable “putters”; they drove the car hard and were more aggressive, but through style and set up were unable to make the tires last as long.

Personally I think Hamilton is quicker, he’s been with the team longer and he’s got motivation by the bucket load after loosing his title to his new team mate. The unknown and potential leveler for Button is the new rules that may suit him a little more. If Hamilton can adapt then that advantage is gone and Button gets beat.

If Red Bull can keep last years momentum going and the usual suspects turn up in competitive cars this is going to be fun to watch.

Despite the withdrawal of Toyota, Honda, BMW and Renault limiting their exposure within the sport, the cost of competing in Formula One remains very high. Other than Mercedes, Ferrari and perhaps Renault teams are wholly reliant on sponsorship. And competition for sponsors is fierce.

Lotus is partially owned by the Malaysian Government, who have stated that no public money will be going to the team beyond some breaks on facilities at Sepang in KL.

In the past many new teams have not made it through the season. There have been a number of reasons, but it’s typically come down to starting the season under financed and either hoping to find additional money as the year goes on, or they just underestimated the costs involved.

I understand at least one of the new teams is still looking for substantial part of their finance packages. With this in mind it seems unlikly that every team on the entry list will make the grid in Bahrain, let alone still be competing in Abu Dhabi in November. With that in mind, clearly there are some concerns about the health of the series remaining.

There is little doubt that F1 is being forced to undergo a fairly fundamental change away from the big spending manufacturers. Money is what makes F1 go around and so far the FIA’s attempts to keep costs in check have met with only limited success.

For the foreseeable future the series is going rely much more on independent teams. These are employers whose business is primarily motor racing, not selling fleets of cars. This is how F1 used to be from the early 70’s up until the mid 90s, when manufacturers began to take over the teams that in many cases they had been suppliers too.

I think some of the big teams are concerned that this shift may alter the prestige of F1, and in turn reduce the vast sums of money the sport generates.

This income depends primarily on F1 continuing to offer hard racing, be seen as the cutting edge of engineering all while retaining the glamour and overt ostentation that make the sport so appealing both on TV and in person.

However if the circus starts to suffer in any way then it’s possible that the top series in the world could loose it’s edge and in return and hurt the revenue that makes the whole thing special.

Will he, won’t he… Bernie told the London Times that it would be “magic” if Michael Schumacher decided F1 with Mercedes was his future. And if Mr. Ecclestone says that it’s a good idea then, clearly discussions have progressed beyond Ross Brawn making a quick phone call asking “what do you think about coming out of retirement and driving for us?”

This rumour has been circulating for a couple of weeks now, clearly something is going on as there have been no denials from either the team, driver or his manager.

It would be quite a risk for Schumacher, but the longer this story runs, the stronger the possibility becomes. I think the other top tier teams would welcome the chance to have another go at Schumacher, they would certainly appreciate the additional exposure this would give the series.

There are a couple of ways to look at Toyota (and BMW, and Honda) walking away for their investment in F1 and the potential of Renault joining them on the sideline.

In 2010 there will be two or three grandees of Mercedes GP (formerly Brawn), Ferrari and potentially Renault. Everyone else has engines supplied by an outside manufacturer.

First scenario is that it’s back to the 70’s where there were the grandees of Ferrari, Renault and Alfa alongside the garagistes that made up the rest of the grid. They used the proven formula of a DFV engine and a Hewland gear box married to an aluminium monocoque chassis with some form of inboard suspension. Ligier always liked to do things a little differently and ran Matra engines.

Williams and McLaren are the only garagistes left from the 70’s with the same names (and I get that a lot of teams can trace lineage back to that era), not coincidentally both followed the DFV formula and both had success with it.

In 1978 (picked at random) 46 drivers entered at least one race in the championship and Cosworth powered 39 of them. Fourteen different constructors and 21 different drivers scored points.

Scenario number two is there are two or three big teams and a bunch of cars with customer engines that are at a disadvantage of not having the latest power plants. Making F1 a two or three horse race with everyone making up the numbers.

Typically there have only been one or two teams that have been totally competitive in any year. During the 70’s and 80’s Ferrari had a lot of mediocre years despite having more resources than any of the garagistes.

2010 will be a fascinating year, it’s possible someone will run away with the championship, but it seems unlikely. The teams that understand and adapt to the changes the best will do well. It’s going to be interesting to see who that is going to be.

I don’t feel that a return to the big, varied grids of the 70’s would be a bad thing. While F1 is an engineering exercise, it’s supposed to be entertaining and giving creative people a reliable and competitive engine/transmission package and letting them innovate around that could throw up a number of surprises, and that keeps the racing interesting.