Dave's random mumblings…

Spa is one of my favourite tracks, and along with Monza it’s certainly one of my favourite Grand Prix. Spa always throws up the unexpected, it’s a long track, has elevation changes, a couple of places that separate the men from the boys, and to be charitable we’ll call the weather “changeable”.

It’s very much a driver’s track, Eau Rouge is a classic and a well set up car can take it flat, it’s just up to the driver if it will actually happen. The TV does not show how steep the road into and out of the corner is, even in a road car the compression at the bottom is substantial, and in an F1 car at 180 it must be huge.

Eau Rouge before warm-up

I’ve thrashed a rental car around the circuit many years ago; it’s really an incredible place. At that time part of it was still a regular road for most of the year. The transition from full-time race track tarmac to part-time track/road was startling and not easy. That challenge has gone, but plenty still remain.

Every race I’ve been to at Spa the weather was always the centre of conversation, and this weekend was no different, practices were run in both the wet and the dry. Race day promised showers, and the forecasters were right.

The front of the grid was the usual mix of Ferraris, McLarens and Red Bulls. I missed morning practice, but the time sheets saw the same cars at the top. The question was could Red Bull make the best of their equipment, while not expected to be as dominant here as they were at the last two races at Hockenhem and the Hungaroring where they were the class of the field. Today Weber was on pole and Vettel third.

McLaren have been at their strongest on the fast circuits, and Spa today and Monza in a couple of weeks are the fastest two tracks of the year. The team certainly seemed confident and expected to do well and pick some points over these races.

The one thing TV will never be able to convey is the noise of 26 Grand Prix cars running together on the start grid and flat out on the opening lap. If you have heard it and it did not move you, I’ve no idea what to say. You can feel it in your chest; it’s an incredible thing to be exposed too.

At Spa I think the best place to a spectator is after La Source on the run down to Eau Rouge. You see the cars at their slowest and at about their fastest. The acceleration of an F1 car out of the hairpin is breathtaking and the speed carried through the fast corner at the bottom of the hill is astounding.

On-off showers marked the morning and after lunch it dried up for the start. Mark Weber missed his start; Lewis Hamilton came out of La Source on the first lap in front. Jenson Button was trying to make it a McLaren 1-2, but Vettel slammed the door hard. Weber came through fighting with Robert Kubica for 4^th.

After a couple of laps the rain started, never that hard. But for a 650 horsepower car on slicks it does not need to be much to cause problems. This was always a race where the team had a huge role to play on race day, making calls about the incoming weather, when to change rubber and actually performing the pit stops.

Alonso changed early, surprisingly into full wets. Cars were certainly struggling to get the power down out of the hairpin and a couple used all the run off available when they messed up their braking points.

As the track dried it was Hamilton comfortably ahead of Kubica and Weber, who were in a great battle and had opened up a little gap to Vettel trying to get around Button for fourth. A battle that was soon over when Vettel messed up his braking into Bus Stop and took out Jenson Button. Vettel was able to carry on, but lost a lot of time.

The rain came out again and most cars dived into the pits. Hamilton stayed out another lap and importantly Weber emerged from the pits ahead of Kubica. This time the rain was heavier and lasted until the end.

Heikki Kovalainen

Felipe Massa span his Ferrari into the wall after Radilion and brought out the safety car for three laps. The order stayed the same for the last few laps, Hamilton from Weber, from Kubica.

Hamilton and Weber had great days while the other three contenders for the drivers’ title either finished outside the points (Vettel) or failed to finish (Button and Massa). Once again Red Bull have not lived up to the promise of qualifying. Vettel made a huge error under braking and took out Button. Weber had pole and did not get the start right. There is still something not quite right with Red Bull, if they had cut out the errors they would be running away with both the drivers and manufacturers championships, but that’s not happening.

Monza in two weeks, I wont be there unfortunately, but I will go to more GPs. I’d forgotten how good race day could be, thanks to the boys in Silver for the invite.

@sniffpetrol

Reporter: ‘Sebastian, can you explain how you massively fucked up?”

After Sebastian Vettel managed to have an accident with his team mate and throwing away a 1-2 for Red Bull at the Turkish GP. Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button moved up and gave McLaren an unexpected win.

Vettel was trying to take team mate Mark Weber in the inside, Weber (as is his right) held his line and Vettel seems to loose control and moved into Webers car. Weber had enough time in hand that he was able to pit for a new nosecone and tires and finished third ahead of Schumacher.

Hamilton was just behind the Red Bull pair and said “It was fantastic. I got the best view of it! Sebastian is safe, but I just saw him go up the inside… It was unfortunate for them and fortunate for us.”

A lot of people (me, Jackie Stewart, Eddie Jordan and all of my more informed racing friends) though Lewis Hamilton was going to crush Jenson Button this year.

So far that’s not happened and I started looking through the results of the first four races and was rather surprised. I accept its early days, we are not even a quarter of the way through the championship and the weather has certainly played a part in mixing things up a bit. None the less it’s rather interesting to have a quick glance down the results.

Bahrain

Race – Hamilton 3rd, Button 7th

Qualifying – Hamilton 4^th, Button 8th

Practice – Button 5^th, Hamilton 6th

Australia

Race – Button 1^st, Hamilton 6th

Qualifying – Button 4^th, Hamilton 11th

Practice – Button 4^th, Hamilton 7th

Malaysia

Race – Hamilton 6^th, Button 8th

Qualifying – Button 17^th, Hamilton 20th

Practice – Hamilton 1st, Button 3rd

China

Race – Button 1^st, Hamilton 2^nd (fastest lap)

Qualifying – Button 5^th, Hamilton 6th

Practice – Button 1^st, Hamilton 3^rd

Coming into the year it was though by many that Button was a good race driver, but ultimately Lewis Hamilton was quicker over a single lap, and that’s not been the case.

This is going to be pretty simplistic as I don’t have the energy to really break the numbers down and pull out my stats text books (there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics) to prove my point, but here we go.

First is the faster over a single lap argument that has been all over a couple of blogs by Hamilton supporters to prove he’s the best.

Combining qualifying and practice Button was faster than Hamilton 75% of the time (6 out if 8).

Personally I feel practice is a little irrelevant. With the limited testing this year it’s a chance to try a few things out and get some laps on the car, but it is head-to-head data and we can’t ignore it totally.

Looking at qualifying only we see the following “average grid position” from each driver.

Button – 8.5 (ignoring Malaysia – 5.6)

Hamilton – 10.25 (ignoring Malaysia – 7)

Button has on average out qualified Hamilton by almost two (1.75) grid places over the four races. Take out the deeply weather affected Malaysian GP grid and it’s a little better for Hamilton, he’s “only” beaten by an average of 1.4 grid positions.

Being subjective for a moment, Buttons two wins have come in part because he reacted to the conditions better and produced a great race strategy. This has become more important with the heavier fuel loads and making tires last. Reacting to the conditions earlier today in Shanghai led to an early swap to slicks and then a decisive change to intermediates saved him a couple of stops over Hamilton. Those two stops were the difference between the top and second step on the podium.

No question Hamilton’s drive through the field was terrific, especially the battle with Vettel as they climbed though the field together. However Buttons win would have been far more dominating had he not been forced to relinquish a substantial lead to the safety car.

I still think that Hamilton is potentially quicker than Button over a single lap, but qualifying and practice have not supported that assumption. I’d like to revisit the numbers in a few races and see what’s going on then.

Today the one important stat is the race for the drivers’ championship, and there Button leads Hamilton 60 to 49 with lots more racing to go.

First day in Bahrain is in the books, as they are going for time I’m guessing everyone is running with low fuel and the car is set up accordingly. A quick look down the times from the two Friday sessions show a few things:

• Michael is not in the groove, a little rusty or underestimated the level of competition as he was beat by Nico Rosberg in both sessions by close to half a second.
• The top four cars in the second session were all powered by Mercedes and were almost 0.4 faster then the best of the rest.
• Did not catch anything obvious, but Ferrari did not improve as much as the other top teams in the second session. Working on race setup perhaps?
• There is nothing between Hamilton and Button in qualifying trim with less than 0.2 separating them in either session.
• Nico Hulkenberg could be the one of the next pretenders to the title, fast and the consistent improvement he shoed in the preseason seems to have carried on through to today. He comes rather hyped and delivered two performances that beat his teammate Barachello by about a second each time.
• The Lotus’s are about 5 seconds off the pace, the two Virgin cars a further two seconds back and the Hispanias somewhere far off in the distance in what is really first shakedown run.
• Vettel looked good and Weber had some issues in the second session, but was comprehensively beaten in the earlier run.
• Sauber found a lot of speed between the first and second session.

Top teams look like the predicable group, Mercedes, McLaren Red Bull and Ferrari with Sauber and Williams close behind.

Last word goes to Michael – “It’s not a problem. It’s just that for one lap I saw that Nico was four-tenths up and that is a bit too much for my standards. I’ve got to raise my game a bit and I’m sure I’m able to.”

It finally started getting noisy again. First test of the year is a rather nervous affair with a first day of school feeling about it. No one really sure what’s going to happen.

Testing started in Valencia and the teams are making the usual “early to say much”, “everything went very well” and “very happy with the new car” noises one would expect.

I had a look through the grid and for the first time since 1999 there are four world champions lining up on the grid, and they are all in what should be competitive cars.

Mercedes is hot off winning both drivers and manufacturers championships last year and I don’t see how adding Schumacher to the mix is going to make them worse. Rosberg has never really shown he can sit with the really fast cars on the track. I doubt Michael will give him the chance, and what ever Ross Brawn says the team will be built around Michael challenging for the championship.

McLaren have the last two world champions in their cars. Last year when the team started testing they were about two seconds off the pace of the fastest cars and it took 8 months of hard work to claw that time back. McLaren does not make that kind of a mess twice and seem to be right there in Valencia.

Ferrari has Alonso joining Massa. Like the two McLaren boys this should be a fun battle to watch unfold over the next few months. I think Alonso should be the quicker, but potentially not by much.

The new rule changes are interesting, with no refueling and longer cars it’s going to help the smoother, finesse drivers more. It’s going to become all about tires and preserving them as fuel loads are equalized during the race.

Hamilton and Button have two very different driving styles; Button has the reputation for being unspectacular and very smooth. Hamilton on the other had is a little more spectacular in throwing the car around more. With a longer wheelbase dictated by the big fuel tank the car is not going to be as responsive to that style.

Looking at last year (I love stats and Wikipedia) Hamilton seemed to be at his best when the fuel load was lighter. Best example maybe Turkey, starting with a light car he just flew through the field, untill the first fuel stop took a lot of his advantage over the rest of the field away.

Going back to the last time there was no refueling (80’s and early 90’s, my personal F1 golden period) it was certainly the smoothest drivers that worked out how be gentle to their tires (Prost was the master, Piquet and Schumacher) did very well. Button, Alonso and (of course) Schumacher seem to be todays drivers whose style may allow fewer stops. I may add Weber to this list, not sure.

On the other side was what were known as the “putters” (as opposed to smooth driving “placers”). Senna and Mansell were notable “putters”; they drove the car hard and were more aggressive, but through style and set up were unable to make the tires last as long.

Personally I think Hamilton is quicker, he’s been with the team longer and he’s got motivation by the bucket load after loosing his title to his new team mate. The unknown and potential leveler for Button is the new rules that may suit him a little more. If Hamilton can adapt then that advantage is gone and Button gets beat.

If Red Bull can keep last years momentum going and the usual suspects turn up in competitive cars this is going to be fun to watch.

The deal is done and the British dream team of McLaren, Hamilton and Button. The engines may be supplied by Mercedes, but they are built in the Northampton and that almost counts.

Last time two A-list drivers were together at McLaren things did not go well with Alonso leaving after one year of his three year contract. Looking back a little further and the team was in a similar position when Alain Prost was at the top of his game was joined by Ayrton Senna in the late 80′s.

It was a pairing that won 15 out of 16 races (and 199 points in the constructors championship) in perhaps the most dominant season long performance by a single team, the only reason they did not make it a clean sweep was Jean-Louis Schlesser tripping up Senna at the first chicane at Monza when the race was clearly in the bag.

These were two drivers using every trick to get one up over each other. Their already strained relationship disintegrated completely in 1989. Prost accused Senna of driving dangerously and that McLaren clearly favoured Senna towards the end of the year. Prost won the drivers title under very controversial circumstances.

It was only shortly before Ayrton died that they reconciled, I think both understood that it took another great driver challenging them to really raise their game.

A team-mate is the only person with the same car, engine and support as you. No one wants to get beaten by someone with identical equipment, especially in the ego driven/sports psychology led world of F1.

Maybe the best example of how it could go wrong was Nigel Mansell and Nelson Piquet at Williams, again in the late 80′s. Nelson was truly awesome at mind games; he’d talk off record to the press about new differentials or other trinkets that were helping his performance. Some of these parts were vapourware and never existed, but Nigel heard the rumours and believed that the Sir Frank and Patrick Head were giving Nelson preferential treatment.

The battle was intense and they both lost the ’86 world title to Alain Prost despite having the best cars on the grid. In ’87 it’s arguable the Piquet was not as fast as Nigel, but the mind games got the better of Mansell and despite more wins for the British driver, Nelson won the championship.

Prost in 1986 was a perfect example of the difference between winning a title and not loosing it. Alain steadily racked up points while the Williams drivers went for wins, beating each other and pushing a superior car too hard at times.

There is lots of history to show it’s very difficult for two top drivers to coexist in a team with out friction or favouritism (perceived or real) being shown.

McLaren clearly knows how to run two completive cars and work together as a team that is focused on winning championships. The question can the two drivers keep the team unified and working together instead of (as history has shown) splitting the team.

I think Nigel Whitmarsh is strong enough and has the authority to make it happen, but it’s also going to need Lewis’s people getting on with Jenson’s people and the drivers staying above the politics and rumour mongering.

Team boss Nigel Whitmarsh has addressed this recently and said:

“I think we’re very lucky in that, with Jenson and Lewis, we have two fiercely competitive individuals who both fully understand the benefit of teamwork.”

“They’re both phenomenal team players. And my job is to manage that racer’s instinct. They are there to race each other – and the only instruction they’ll receive from me is to respect each other on the track. But that’s it – other than that, they’re free to race.”

It’s been a long time since I’ve looked forward to an F1 season like this, it’s got to potential to be a great one and I think the relationship between the two McLaren drivers is going to be critical to the teams success.

There are days that I just love the British red tops and their jingoistic slant on life, and today is one of them.

“Button forced out”, “Team Germany” and “New world champion left out in the cold” are the favorite titles I’ve seen so far.

Mercedes and a Middle Eastern investment company have purchased a majority stake in Brawn GP, who is now being rebranded as “Mercedes GP”. With Nico Rosberg already signed for 2010, the second seat has been rumoured to be going to Nick Heidfeld or possibly Timo Glock.

The car will be prepared and run from the UK, but a championship win for the new Mercedes team with a German driver would be huge. Schumacher is the only German F1 world champion and a couple of years after his retirement may still be the highest profile German sports figure.

The Daily Mirror goes on to speculate that “British world champion Button was forced to quit Brawn because they fear [Rosberg] would be outclassed by Button, just as he was by Hamilton when they were team-mates in karting.”

Jenson Button wants a pay rise (and reasonably so) and as champion brings the number-1 plate to whichever team he ends up with. The serious money seems to be on Button getting a seat at McLaren along side Lewis Hamilton. That would be quite the team. If they can be given a competitive car, and the second half of the season indicates they can, it should be a very interesting looking package. .

In some good news Felipe Massa drove an F1 car for the first time since his accident in Hungary. He drove next to Alonso at an end of year Ferrari event in Spain over the weekend.

Next year just got a little more fun as the mighty Germans go against the British lads at McLaren. With the British inferiority complex in full swing I’m sure phrases like “underdog”, “plucky” and lots of references to the war will be thrown around as the season goes on.

Formula-1 is hardly a sport known for surprises and this year has thrown them up left right and center. Honda withdrew from the sport after investing untold millions of euros and sold the remains of the team to Ross Brawn, who promptly went out and won both the drivers and constructors championships less than a year later.

On reflection Hondas decision to quit looks like one of the worst calls in a business that has a rich history of poor decisions by the money people.

The engine decision came late and caused a huge compromise as the chassis and gearbox design were already complete and designed for a Honda engine. Weight distribution was not perfect and the deal for Mercedes engines was not done untill December, but after a couple of mediocre efforts the aero was better than anyone else, and by quite a margin.

The car ran for the first time three weeks before the opening race, then it won six out of the first seven grand prix.

Clearly having the very good Mercedes engine over the uncompetitive (but I understand lighter) Honda made a significant difference in how fast the car was, but there was also a huge step forward in how good the chassis and aero was.
Ross Brawn as chief engineer has won nine constructors championships with three teams (Benetton, Ferrari and now Brawn), but this is the first without Michael Schumacher.

He arrived at Honda too late to do much about the 2008 car, but in 2009 it was his show. I get the impression from friends that he lets the engineers and mechanics get on with what they are employed to do. He leads and directs the team, removes the roadblocks and does not micro manage. It was put to me that “(Ross Brawn) created an atmosphere where we could do our job, be creative and be judged on results, not adherence to the plan”.

This is similar style to Ron Dennis, he knows what’s going on and allows people to show what they can do. He’s clear what does not work, but incredibly supportive, loyal and allows his people to succeed.

Next year is going to be challenging, Alonso and Ferrari are expected to be very competitive after an off year. McLaren came a long way during the second half of the year and with the F1 silly season in full swing have been rumoured to be talking to Jenson Button about joining Lewis Hamilton in what could be a phenomenal package on a number of levels.

Brawn on the other hand have a lot going for them, a big name sponsor is close to being announced and Mercedes have indicated they want to buy into the team. I’m told that McLaren is not exactly delighted by that prospect, but have been told their position with Mercedes is secure.

Under new rules next year a supplier may supply up to three customer and one works team. This year McLaren were the works team, Brawn and Force India had the customer deals. If Mercedes were to buy into Brawn it would seem to make the proposed engine deal with Red Bull (Brawn’s main contender this year) rather unlikely.